Incompetent criminal deterrence and social insecurity: public spending and structural determinants of homicides

ABSTRACT

Introduction:

In the context of public security policies in Brazil, the concept of criminal deterrence suggests that repressive police measures reduce crime rates insofar as potential offenders take into account the risk of being apprehended. Conversely, dispositional theories argue that social exclusion and socioeconomic anxiety play a pivotal role in contributing to violent crime, leading to heightened tensions and weakened social cohesion. Our research examines the impact of socioeconomic factors and public expenditure on security, healthcare, education, and social assistance on the incidence of intentional homicides.

Materials and methods:

To examine these two ideas, we employed multivariate panel regression models, considering the impact of public spending per inhabitant on public security (as a proxy for policing), as well as on education, social assistance, and health (a proxy for social policies). We controlled for various factors, including macro-regional dummies, unemployment, inequality, average income, the percentage of young men in the population, morbid drug use, and the supply of firearms.

Findings:

Our findings indicate that social investments were statistically associated with a reduction in homicides, while factors such as access to firearms, psychoactive substance use, average income, unemployment, and investment in public security were linked to an increase in homicide rates. The impact of income inequality and the proportion of young men in this context did not yield consistent results. Consequently, it appears that a combination of situational and dispositional mechanisms offers a more promising framework for understanding the incidence of violent and lethal crimes.

Discussion:

Public policies aimed at providing education, healthcare, social assistance, job opportunities, as well as addressing psychoactive substance use and firearm control, have shown to be effective strategies for reducing criminal violence. However, increased spending on policing appeared to be an ineffective response to violent crime, highlighting the inefficiency of current security policies in Brazil.

Keywords
violence; homicides; public policy; public security; multivariate regression