The anger of white men: predictors of votes for Enéas and Bolsonaro

Abstract

After observing similarities between the presidential candidates Enéas Carneiro and Jair Bolsonaro, in this article I test whether there is a common profile among their constituencies. I use electoral and survey data to show how the territorial distribution of Enéas’ vote converges with that of Bolsonaro and how the most efficient predictors of the vote for Enéas also predict the vote for Bolsonaro. The results point to a small but stable niche in support of radical right-wing candidates over time: young white men, with above average years of formal education and higher income. The study informs the debate about the existence of a core constituency of the radical right in Brazil, pointing to possible mechanisms related to the frustration and anger of young white men following redemocratization.

Bolsonaro; elections; Enéas Carneiro; Bolsonarism core constituency; radical right-wing populism